The following is an unedited transcript of the news release from the UK National Statistics.


The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services is provisionally estimated at £4.1 billion, unchanged from December. In the three months ended January, the deficit on trade in goods and services narrowed to £12.5 billion, from a £13.2 billion deficit in the previous three months. The latest estimate of the trend suggests that the UK trade deficit is fairly flat in recent months.


TRADE IN GOODS – JANUARY

Value of total trade in goods

The UK''s deficit on trade in goods in January is provisionally estimated at £7.5 billion, unchanged compared with that in December. The deficit with EU countries in January was £3.2 billion, compared with £3.4 billion in December. The deficit with non-EU countries in January was £4.3 billion, compared with £4.1 billion in December.

In January, total exports of goods rose by six and a half per cent to £20.0 billion and total imports of goods rose by four and a half per cent to £27.5 billion. Exports to EU countries rose five and a half per cent and exports to non-EU countries rose seven and a half per cent.
Imports from EU countries rose three per cent and imports from non- EU countries rose by six and a half per cent. In the three months ended January, the deficit on trade in goods narrowed by £0.3 billion to £22.9 billion. The deficit with EU countries narrowed by £0.2 billion to £10.1 billion, and the deficit with non-EU countries narrowed by £0.2 billion to £12.8 billion. In the three months ended January, exports of goods rose by three and a half per cent and imports of goods rose by two per cent.

Exports to EU countries rose by five per cent and exports to non-EU countries rose by two per cent. Imports from EU countries rose by three and a half per cent and those from non-EU countries rose by a half per cent. The latest estimate of the trend suggests that the whole world goods deficit is fairly flat. The trends in the value of trade show both exports and imports rising slightly in recent months.

Volume of total trade in goods (excluding oil and erratics)

Provisional estimates show that the volume of exports rose by six per cent and the volume of imports rose by one per cent from that in December. In the three months ended January, exports and imports both fell by a half per cent compared with the previous three months. Changes in trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud mean that comparisons of volume and prices (both including and excluding trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud) should be treated with a great deal of caution. Latest estimates of volume trends show both exports and imports fairly flat in recent months.

Export and import prices (trade in goods)

January’s provisional estimates show that export prices rose two per cent and import prices rose two and a half per cent compared with December. In the three months ended January, export prices rose five per cent and import prices rose four per cent. This led to an increase in terms of trade.

COMMODITY ANALYSIS OF TRADE IN GOODS

Trade in oil

In January, the balance on trade in oil was in deficit by £0.5 billion, compared with £0.1 billion in December. In the three months ended January, the deficit on trade in oil was £1.3 billion, compared with a deficit of £1.5 billion in the previous three months.

Trade in other commodities in the three months ended January 2008

For exports, all the main commodity groups showed a rise in volume, except, semi-manufactures and finished manufactures. Within finished manufactures, exports of consumer goods other than cars fell by two and a half per cent, and of cars fell by two per cent. Exports of chemicals fell by one per cent, while exports of other semimanufactured goods rose by one per cent. For imports, all the main commodity groups showed a fall in volume, except fuels. Within finished manufactures, imports of cars fell eight per cent, and imports of consumer goods other than cars fell by two per cent. Imports of capital goods rose by one and a half per cent. Imports of chemicals fell two and a half per cent and imports of other semi-manufactured goods fell one per cent.

Exports by country

Within the G7 group of countries, exports to Germany rose by £0.4 billion, and to Italy and France by £0.1 billion. Among other countries, exports to the Netherlands rose by £0.5 billion, and to Spain and to Belgium and Luxembourg both rose by £0.2 billion. Exports to Russia, India, Hong Kong and Turkey all rose by £0.1 billion.