The following is an unedited transcript of the news release from the UK Office for National Statistics.


The UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services is provisionally estimated to have narrowed in February to £4.4 billion from a deficit of £5.0 billion in January. In the three months ended February, the deficit on trade in goods and services narrowed to £13.6 billion, from a £13.7 billion deficit in the previous three months. The latest estimate of the trend suggests that the UK trade deficit is fairly flat in recent months. The notes discuss a number of factors which mean that the initial estimates of the data are less reliable than previously, and which make interpretation of short term movements difficult.

TRADE IN GOODS – FEBRUARY

Value of total trade in goods

The UK’s deficit on trade in goods in February is provisionally estimated at £7.5 billion, compared with £7.9 billion in January. The deficit with EU countries in February was £3.5 billion, compared with £3.7 billion in January. The deficit with non-EU countries in February was £4.0 billion, compared with £4.3 billion in January. In February, total exports of goods fell marginally to £20.5 billion and total imports of goods fell by one and a half per cent to £28.0 billion. Exports to EU countries fell four per cent while exports to non-EU countries rose five and a half per cent. Imports from EU countries fell four per cent while imports from non-EU countries rose by one and a half per cent.

In the three months ended February, the deficit on trade in goods narrowed by £0.9 billion to £22.9 billion. The deficit with EU countries widened by £0.1 billion to £10.5 billion, and the deficit with non-EU countries narrowed by £1.0 billion to £12.4 billion. In the three months ended February, exports of goods rose by five and a half per cent and imports of goods rose by two and a half per cent. Exports to EU countries rose by seven per cent and exports to non-EU countries rose by three per cent. Imports from EU countries rose by five and a half per cent and those from non- EU countries fell by one per cent. The latest estimate of the trend suggests that the whole world goods deficit is fairly flat. The trends in the value of trade show both exports and imports rising slightly in recent months.

Volume of total trade in goods (excluding oil and erratics)

Provisional estimates show that the volume of exports and of imports both fell by two per cent from that in January. In the three months ended February, exports rose two per cent while imports fell marginally compared with the previous three months. Changes in trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud mean that comparisons of volume and prices (both including and excluding trade associated with VAT MTIC fraud) should be treated with a great deal of caution. Latest estimates of volume trends show both exports and imports fairly flat in recent months.

Export and import prices (trade in goods)

February’s provisional estimates show that export prices rose a half per cent and import prices rose one per cent compared with January. In the three months ended February, export and import prices both rose four and a half per cent. This led to an increase in terms of trade.

Trade in oil

In February, the balance on trade in oil was in surplus by less than £0.1 billion, compared with a deficit of £0.5 billion in January. In the three months ended February, the deficit on trade in oil was £0.5 billion, compared with a deficit of £1.6 billion in the previous three months.

Trade in other commodities in the three months ended February 2008

For exports, all the main commodity groups showed a rise in volume, except fuels and basic materials. Within finished manufactures, exports of cars rose by six per cent. Exports of consumer goods other than cars fell by one and a half per cent. Exports of chemicals rose by five per cent, and exports of other semi-manufactured goods rose by two and a half per cent.

For imports, all the main commodity groups showed a fall in volume, except basic materials, food, drink and tobacco, and semimanufactures. Within finished manufactures, imports of capital goods fell three per cent. Imports of consumer goods other than cars and of intermediate goods both fell by two and a half per cent. Imports of cars rose by six and a half per cent. Imports of chemicals rose one and a half per cent and imports of other semimanufactured goods were unchanged.

Exports by country

Within the G7 group of countries, exports to Germany rose by £0.8 billion, and to Italy by £0.2 billion. Exports to Canada fell by £0.1 billion. Among other countries, exports to the Netherlands rose by £0.8 billion. Exports to Spain rose by £0.4 billion, and to the Irish Republic, Hong Kong and Russia all rose by £0.2 billion. Exports to China rose by £0.1 billion. Exports to Belgium and Luxembourg, and to Norway both fell by £0.1 billion.

Imports by country

Within the G7 group of countries, imports from the USA fell by £0.5 billion. Imports from France and Germany both rose by £0.4 billion. Among our other trading partners, imports from the Netherlands rose by £0.8 billion, and from Norway rose by £0.5 billion. Imports from Sweden rose by £0.3 billion, and from China, Belgium and Luxembourg, and Hungary all rose by £0.2 billion. Imports from Hong Kong, India, Finland, and from Spain all rose by £0.1 billion. Imports from Russia, and from Australia fell by £0.2 billion. Imports from Poland fell by £0.1 billion.